Thursday, June 30, 2011

EUR/USD update

Short-term charts are now flashing a warning. 5 and 15 min trendlines, which were so steep that you could ski on them, are now broken. Hourly trendline has been breached and backtest is now in progress. I would say that we need some pretty serious confirmations for these short-term moves down to continue, as there is still a strong uptrend on 4 hr chart in place. Heading into long weekend with low liquidity, this may not be the trade to take. Fundamentally, dollar is weak due to debt ceiling debate (post coming on this ludicrous issue), and Mr. Trichet plain out said Europe is the new China, earlier today. Frankly I think Mr. Trichet is sniffing some serious glue, as euro econodata has been coming in very weak lately. Peripherals are in stagnation, with unemployment there as high as 12-20%. And German and French numbers we saw earlier today are telling us consumers are keeping their wallets in their pockets. If Germany slows down - Das ist nicht gut! But Mr. Trichet is the man of the hour with his "strong vigilance" on his mind. Due to his rate hikes, euro is not dead, and we are going to let him leave on the white horse. His term is over on October 31 (I am going to really miss his press conferences) and Mr. Draghi is taking over. Speaking of Mr. Draghi, Italy is in deep "you know what" lately. Rating agencies are forgetting the Greek Gods and maybe heading for the Roman Empire next. So all of this aside and deeply considered in the back of our minds, lets come back to the technicals. 1.4500 is a key level next week. If euro manages to close above it on daily basis a few times (1st daily close occurred today), then 1.4700 is next. But if 1.4550 is the resistance and top of the daily triangle holds (one of these days I will have the charts here as well) then EUR/USD  is to go down to backtest 50 dma @ 1.4400 and perhaps do some serious stop hunt there. Oh those trailing stop traders will be pissed.

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