Monday, June 27, 2011

Gold - identity crisis?

Gold - the new reserve currency, the ultimate inflation/deflation hedge, the new paradigm in fiat currency world. Is it??? Here it sits at $1499 on the eve of financial Armageddon II, and well off the high of 1577 reached almost 2 months ago on May 2. So what is the deal here? Rumor has it that Paulson (who's gold fund accumulated enormous position) has been liquidating last week or so. And the current "opinion" is that he did this due to his loss in Sino-Forest (Chinese co.) which went bust. He took a very large loss on that bust and now had to sell something which made him a lot of money - gold. Another "opinion" is that IMF had to sell its gold position to fund the new Greek bailout. True or not, someone is selling and gold is falling. It is now well below 50 dma, heading to 100 dma @ 1470, and perhaps to its long-term trend support 150 dma @ 1440. Where is the glitter of precious when you need it? I am not  a doubter of the purpose for gold but rather of the "opinion" that it will shine under any conditions.
I think we have established the foul presumption and now need to monitor the developments in the next few weeks to see whether it is reacting to stronger dollar, weaker commodities, or most importantly - euro (fiat currency) not collapsing under enormous weight of bad news...

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