Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Oil - part 3

Oh Canada! Many folks do not realize that 25% of our daily imported oil comes from Canada. It surpasses what we import from Saudi Arabia by 100%.  Obviously we are also their biggest trade partner. With that said, it is easy to understand why Canadian economy is tightly correlated with US. They depend on our recovery and growth. Oil being their biggest export it is clear why Loonie (funny name for Canadian Dollar) has been hit since SPR release announcement last week. To make things more interesting, Mr. Carney (Bank of Canada "BOC" governor) has decided, surprisingly, to be cautious and dovish in his remarks last week, and said that stimulus can not be withdrawn too quickly and is still needed with output gap. You think, Eh?? Oil is falling like a rock. WTI is down from $115 per barrel, and CAD had a 200 pip decline. Are we to be surprised? CAD and oil are very highly correlated. Where oil goes CAD will follow. Many traders were positioned for a BOC rate hike in 3rd qtr, I say not too sure now.

EIA Inventory # is out: huge surprise - draw of 4.4 mil barrels!! CAD is rallying back with oil rebounding and Greek YES vote propping up risk. These risk on/off trades are short-term directional bets. I say watch our econo numbers and Canada's as well. Canada CPI came in hotter than expected this morning, and our housing numbers are improving all of a sudden. Lets watch and see what transpires in the next few weeks. Mr. Carney may find himself caught between a rock and a hard place. 

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