Tuesday, June 28, 2011

SPX levels on the downside

Since they tell us the world will end tomorrow if NO is the outcome of the Greek vote, lets look at possible SPX downside targets. As many have already predicted, SPX will go to 1220-30 or so for the test of the support from Apr and Nov 2010 highs respectively. On the way there we have:

1. 200 day sma @ 1265 (not going to matter, been there already)
2. 1258 - 6/16 low (same, little support there 2nd time around)
3. 1249 - this year's low, price may stay there for a little, lets say 1-2 hours, no kidding...
4. 1240 - much better support @ 50 week sma

And now what happens below 1220? Your guess is as good as mine. But in the event hell breaks loose - trendline from July 2009 through July 2010 is a good target - currently @ 1170 (if we fall to it straight down from here). WOW. Not to be worried folks, will not happen in one day. Coincidence with July??? Market timing can not be done, many talking heads say... It so happens that 200 week sma is also there @ 1164, and the one I respect even more, 200 week ema is @ 1182. I would also like to point out that market likes these 10% below prior year's close bottoms. That would take SPX to 1130 - 10% below SPX 1257 last year's close, 1130 is also 6/21/10 and 8/9/10 resistance, now to be support. WOW again - 1130. Now, am I that bearish after being bullish the last couple of days? I am not (suppressing my opinion as I type), but since they tell us Armageddon is upon us, we can not really predict how bad things could become when real selling begins. I simply try to lay out the levels before the bloodletting begins. Remember that we take the stairs up and the elevator down...
So now that everyone is looking for 1300 and above, should we say greed is back and we are to be opportunistic? Not to be too fast here, we are to monitor the situation closely and use our best judgement. Just remember that market is set up to go up, we will be pissing against the wind. I do not have to tell you how ugly the outcome could be when you do that...

this is definitely not a suggestion for a specific trade, my opinion only folks

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