Monday, July 11, 2011

10 Yr Note Yield $TNX

No change from my Friday update, continuing to crater. We are below 3% and settled at the low of the day low. 10 Yr Note is the safest after German Bund. I have to say, if European contagion is really here to stay, I doubt Bund has upper hand, our treasuries will win the competition and really skyrocket. Many will say "skyrocket where? highest levels in a long time already". I say fear can drive treasuries to 2.5% yield before end of July. Well, just one trader's opinion. And I reserve the right to change my view... :)
I am sure you have your own thoughts on this.

Technicals: since a daily close below 3% occurred, we have 2.8% and 2.7% to trade against below. After that 2.5% is near, and unthinkable 2.3% after that... Can this happen? YES, especially if equities disappoint with Q2 reports.

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