Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Econodata July 26

We are continuing to get weak Mfg data. Richmond Mfg Index came in negative today. I will say it again: this is a precursor to overall economic slowdown, as manufacturing is the most sensitive sector in slowdown. It is also the first to show any weakness.

New home sales came in weaker than expected. They are not accelerating at a pace to show any sustained recovery. As the matter of fact, we got a mo/mo decline. Very disappointing after a good number we got earlier.
Also we got Case-Schiller. It showed some seasonal improvement in prices, but yr/yr is down still - 4.5%. So we wait longer for biggest asset of consumer's - housing - to recover. Bummer!!

CB Consumer Confidence came in a bit higher. Surprised economists and showed renewed confidence for a change. While the # was quite low by measure (2nd lowest in 8 mo), it still shows that consumers want to feel more upbeat about 2nd half, hoping for more jobs ahead. I do not want to be a wet blanket here, ain't no real jobs out there for everyday folk to speak of. U6 is going the wrong way, and pushed back above 16% in June. What a sad story...

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