Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Econodata July 5 and Forex update

New Zealand: Biz Confidence is up strongly. Huge rebuilding efforts (after Christchurch earthquake and aftershocks) are under way. Kiwi (NZD) is at multi-decade high against USD and looks unstoppable. China has a lot to do with this move, as they have announced their intentions to invest NZ$6 billion in New Zealand.

Australia: AIG Svc Indx a bit weaker. Trade balance stronger than expected.
Of very high importance! RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) left the rates unch @ their meeting last night. Furthermore, they sounded very dovish in their comments downgrading the Australian growth for the rest of the year to less than expected. This pretty much takes care of any hikes in foreseeable future. AUD will probably settle into a range here, due to this development.

Europe: UK Svc PMI in-line. Pound continues in its 1.60 - 1.61 range. This coiled spring will shoot like a rocket once it breaks out. No idea which way yet...
EU final Svc PMI slightly weaker, as well as retail sales. Euro is still under some pressure from S&P comments on "selective default" of Greek bonds. They downgraded Lehman to selective default, as I remember. We know what happened shortly after...

US: factory orders slightly below expectations. USD is getting a bid across the board. Not sure what is the deal, but a few ideas would be: Greek worry due to rating agencies, and rumor of a possible repatriation tax holiday on overseas profits by US corporations. The latter has been in a discussion for a while as a tool to boost domestic investments, by bringing here otherwise dormant funds sheltered overseas. The bill is in congress and perhaps some are speculating on imminent positive outcome. Similar legislation back in 2004 failed to achieve its intended results: job creation. Lets see if law makers attach some stipulations to current bill, which would guarantee job creation by corporations subject to tax holiday.

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