Monday, July 4, 2011

EUR/USD July 4

We now have two consecutive closes above 1.4500 on daily to confirm the trip to 1.4700

Longs have Thursday ECB meeting on their side. It is widely expected that 0.25% hike will be announced then. We should also pay attention to JCT (Jean-Claude Trichet) press conference that day. Look for hawkish tone to continue. Be on the lookout for "strong vigilance" phrase, or something along the lines of "no change in our outlook". Just remember: ECB is a one-mandate central bank, with emphasis on below 2% inflation target. Last report showed annual inflation running @ 2.7% in EU, and not showing any signs of cooling off.

Shorts have a possible Greek debt default declaration by rating agencies, due to existing debt-swap/rollover proposals. This is also an issue for ECB, which said they will not accept Greek debt as a collateral in event of default. It could create one ugly headwind for Euro, as Greece's banks will be cut off from funding. If this happens markets will be roiled, to say the least. Not everything is perfect in our little paradise.

Longs are winning so far...

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