Friday, July 29, 2011

Market Thoughts for Next Week

We are going to have a very busy week of August 1. A lot of econodata, earnings, and debt ceiling dilemma. My plan is to be flat until Sun night (start of forex and futures trading), and digest any possible developments out of Washington. Today is just too wild of a day to be chopping the trading account. I will say this again: nobody ever gets all the moves, except for liars.

So my very important message for next week is: ECONOMY. I am starting to think, no, I am already certain that we are heading for some extremely turbulent times in the market, due to bad economic news. 2nd half recovery is no sure thing now. We are going to have (starting with Chinese PMI on Sun night) very important economic news releases next week, which will culminate with NFP on Fri. I think that they will be more important than the debt ceiling. Funny how "it is" all about "the economy, stupid".

And why is the market not going up on better-than-expected Q2 earnings? All good corporate news have been cancelled by debt ceiling drama. So the weight of economic slowdown around the world has tipped the scale. Watch those reports next week for defining moment in the market's next move.

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