Friday, July 22, 2011

No US Debt Deal = Opportunity (update with new SPX downside levels)

OK folks, here we go!!! We will get a small deal, which will solve no debt problem at all, just an extension. But there will be no end of the world - there will be a deal.
I sure hope you have your powder dry and ready to go. This opportunity will be quick and you have to act decisively.
Here is how it will go: Rating agencies will rule on Monday. It will start and end with the bond market. Watch a massive confusion by all those who are allowed to hold AAA rated gov't securities only, money market funds come to mind, etc. Stock market will dive like nuts. Beware of those sharp declines and use them to buy the market A LOT LOWER. Be short until then, and trail your stops because the snapback will be just as quick and violent.
NDX broke out to new year high today. No need to short the leaders, just short the laggards. Strategize over the weekend, use extreme caution, put silly bids in, and wait for the market to come down to them. Then buy all the leaders in your sight. It will be an unprecedented opportunity to buy a 13.5 PE multiple SPX @ perhaps 11.5?? Do not listen to all those who said it is all priced in and they are ready for a smaller deal - just not true. Big deal was priced in - not a small, extension-type deal. Fear makes people rethink everything in a blink of an eye. All those fund managers sitting on gains will sell so fast, it will make everyone's head spin.
It will look bad in a short-term, but manageable at the end. There will be a deal by Aug 2, and until then we get a lifetime opportunity to trade two ways in a very wide range - 200 SPX points perhaps. Yum!!! Use my levels on the downside for your references, if you wish
If you are afraid, not a trader, do not have live quotes at your disposal all the time, not sure, or just plain out new at this - DO NOT DO THIS! Be safe and follow your plan.

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