Friday, August 12, 2011

Econodata Aug 12

After some vacuum we got some data today. Let's digest:

France did not grow in Q2. GDP was flat @ 0.00% q/q. Great, now you tell me how ESFS gets all the gazillion of euros it needs to bailout Italy and Spain? S&P is furiously crunching numbers this morning I bet, reconsidering their AAA rating on France due to no growth. That 4th European rating agency idea is going to get some more wind if France gets downgraded, I say. Once that happens, S&P's days are numbered.
European industrial production was a negative 0.7% m/m. Oh deep joy, maybe we finally can get some factories in US to pick up the slack from Europe? And we wanna get paid in Euros please.
French CPI was negative 0.4% m/m. Mr. Trichet should have listened to Mr. Bernanke's transitory commodity inflation arguments.
French payrolls were better. Now why can't we get that here? No growth but hiring, socialism at its best...
This is not weighing on Euro even a bit this morning. I think maybe "risk on" is helping it, combined with an anticipation of Tuesday love fest, and European-wide short selling ban (on this later today).

Retail sales rocked in July. Can the American consumer please save the world, again? Even ex-autos and gas it was a respectable 0.5% m/m increase. How the hell are we going to have recession with these numbers? I am confused why the entire world stock markets are pointing to one, but they do. Sometimes deep corrections look like bears, I have to point out. Recession outcome will depend on the duration of this market correction. If we stay here long, investor confidence will be damaged greatly, pushing us into recession.
We have UoM cons. conf. coming up @ 9:55 am.  I will update...

Mr. Kocherlakota just came out and said why he dissented. Ouch, what a blow to the Chairman. Is this the first time FOMC member went to such extent to explain in detail why he disagrees with policy decision? We got "iPad-eating" Dudley coming up at 10 am. I will update...

UoM - UGLY!! But is anyone surprised? US AAA rating gone, we ain't good ole USA no more :) Combine that with stock market rout, and you got a freaked out consumer. She ain't gonna shop until this Sunday, at least :)

"iPad-eating" Dudley sounds extremely dovish this morning. When does he ever not? He is pushing the "panic" button about now. Can you say QE3?? What the heck are they waiting for? Jackson Hole? These central bankers are so predictable. Where is Greenspan when you need him? We need some suspense and excitement! Can we please have a breakout in EUR/USD already? I am falling asleep...

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