Monday, August 15, 2011

EUR/USD Move could be a Fake

I am skeptical but not shorting into this. Here is my take:

We had an established range 1.4150 - 1.4425 in place. We broke out of that range today, helped by a triangle breakout within the range. So we are on the top of the box and are waiting for headlines from tomorrow's Sarkozy/Merkel meeting. If the headlines are not supportive of this move - then it is over. Euro will head back down to 1.41 at best and perhaps 1.40 at worst. It will stop there and wait for EFSF/ESM September votes, imho. If the headlines are supportive, then Euro will use the top of the box as a launch pad and needs to break above 1.4535 and close above it on hourly basis for continuation to occur. Should that happen, this move is legit and will rip higher, with 1.47 as the next target and 1.4940 after that.
I was surprised by today's move, as there was absolutely no reason for it fundamentally. I did miss it completely, I have to be honest. I understand that there were some worried shorts covering ahead of the love fest tomorrow. Beware of possible reversal above 1.45 after stops there are done.
Tomorrow's DR1 is 1.4531 with daily upper BB there as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment