Thursday, September 8, 2011

SPX and EUR/USD technicals before President's speech

We have an open SPX gap @ 1165. We need to fill this gap before we go up above 1200. I call this "unfinished business". We can fill it in afterhours on futures or in regular hours on cash tomorrow. I would rather see a cash fill tomorrow morning and bounce into the close from there. If market is strong we may just get a half gap fill.
My bias remains bullish as long as we do not close below 1165 on daily basis.
BTW, roll your contracts to Dec.

EUR/USD has its first close below 1.40 and looks to do some damage. I am leaning towards a short again, but DXY @ 200 dma gives me a small pause. I have to say that it will not be a one-way trade here. Retrace to 1.3950 - 1.40 could be in order first. Many traders will initiate shorts @ those levels (yours truly included). We are still going to be fighting big panda, so be nimble and do not overdo it. We moved over 6 big handles from the top.

UPDATE @ 8:45 pm edt
SPX futures lost some ground after the speech, but quickly regained it and are now flat. Package is somewhat larger than previously leaked. Not sure market cares at the moment. A lot of it will not pass deeply-divided congress. One thing noticeably absent in speech was any mention of regulatory burden. Red tape is the biggest reason businesses are not hiring.
As if we did not have enough risks, we now have a possible 9/11 threat (per news wires) hanging above us. Watch gold for clues on risk-off bias.

Update @ 1 am edt
EUR/USD is not being let up to 1.3950 with Asian traders front running the level. I am a bit hesitant to put short position on at the bottom of 600+ pip decline going into G7 meetings weekend. Who the heck knows what these geniuses will cook up? A bigger retrace (to punish late shorts) could come before we get a good entry to short again. Patience is a virtue.

No comments:

Post a Comment