Friday, September 30, 2011

SPX Update

SPX is having a tough time keeping its head above 1160. Next weekly pivot is there. SPX would need to close above that on two consecutive daily basis to continue higher. My bias remains neutral in this choppy tape. Economic news was better than expected this morning, yet it was sold into again. Bear market rallies get sold.

I am wrapping my mind around a climactic washout day next week. I have been looking for it this week, then decided it will not come due to everyone looking for the same thing. But now I am back into that mode of wanting an epic turnaround day from sub-1100 level. It has to come on huge intraday volume and diverging momentum studies. I want to see VIX trade below 40 after that turnaround, and trend lower. Maybe I want too much :)

For now it is "trade what you see" - sell the rallies.

Update Sep 30 @ 4:40 pm
Closed on the low of the day and the week. Window dressing was not met with buyers. On Monday there could be some new money put to work. There is no reason to think that SPX will not breach 1100 after not being able to rally on good news this week. I am no longer confused - market cleared up my mind. I am perfectly fine to wait out the last 40 - 50 SPX points on the sidelines. No reason to be the last one to sell at the bottom. I will be looking to go long after a breach of 1100 has been completed. If you are a conservative trader, wait for short-term bottom to form. If you are an aggressive contrarian, put silly bids in, you may just get them filled...

1 comment:

  1. Cheers bro, from soon to be bankrupt Greece. I want the same. I know it will happen. Long TVIX, FAZ, EEV, EPV. It's not about what we want anymore. Numbers, charts and figures are broke long time now. Keep patient and cautious.