Monday, September 26, 2011

XLF - bottom is near

Very near! Like this week near. I am not an etf trader. I trade index futures. But I have to stay aware of market sectors which drive my favorite vehicle - SPX.
None of those sectors is as important as financials. It has been widely-publicized and well-documented that financial sector is dead money. While I do not want to dispute weak fundamentals of this sector, I am going to go contrarian here and say that based on charts, it is getting ready to bottom for the short term and head higher on a bear-hunting run. I think that it will be fast, furious, and steep, and I can provide the levels to which it is going.

Here is my technical case for XLF bear-market rally:

1. There is an enormous momentum divergence on daily chart. As the price is making new 2011 lows, MACD is not, and they have now diverged by quite a lot.
2. Volume is declining on this lower low. It is about 25% less than Aug lows volume, in the sign of waning sellers on this last leg down.
3. Falling wedge has now developed, and the price has kissed the lower trendline, and just bounced nicely on Friday in a reversal chart pattern.
4. Stochastic is oversold, but is not embedded into the sell though. With price rising, it will go back above the signal line, and HFTs will sniff that buy signal fast.
5. Price bottomed at support level going back to 2009.

So if XLF has bottomed, where is it going? I think it is heading up to challenge 8/31 high at 13.48, which is also at top of daily BB and roughly 50 dsma. That would be 15% rally from Fri close, which I think it will do on almost uninterrupted one to two week ascent. I expect this to help SPX bottom for 2011 this week. There may be an initial weakness on Monday and early Tuesday from which this rally may begin.

UPDATE Sep 27 @ 12:40 pm edt
XLF is up 7% since I mentioned the trade. It is important to remember that this is a counter-trend trade in a very strong downtrend. Scale out, trail the stops, please.


  1. Hi, what do you think XLF will do tomorrow after todays rally??

  2. XLF has a support at 12 now. I am looking for a pullback to that. If it goes below, there is an unfilled gap at 11.68 which will provide support as well.
    I expect some SPX weakness to continue, due to much needed 1100 retest. XLF needs to stay above its 2011 lows on that retest, I expect it to, anyway.