Thursday, October 27, 2011

Is 2011 just like 1998?

Could be. Just like in 1998 (when Russian debt crisis collapsed LTCM and brought our markets down) it is PIIGS debt crisis that brought our markets down now. Just like in 1998 (when decline was between July 20 and Oct 8) SPX started its 2011 major decline on July 22 and bottomed on Oct 4. SPX dropped 22.4% in 1998 from top to bottom - SPX dropped 21.5% this time (from top on May 2 though).

Now I want to know the only important thing - will SPX do now what it did in 1998 between Oct 8 and Dec 31??
In 1998 SPX went up 35% from Oct 8 to Dec 31 on a steady and uninterrupted ascent, in which it blew passed all resistance levels and moving averages in its way. If SPX does the same thing now - it would go to 1450. Will this happen? Here is my honest answer - I have no idea. My end of year target is 1250 - 1300. You can see how the above scenario may put a slight dent in my theory.

Update Oct 31 11:20 am
Add another stunning resemblance to 1998. This morning MF Global has filed for bankruptcy as a result of European debt on their books.  

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