Tuesday, November 29, 2011

EUR/USD Trade Idea

It has been a while since I looked at EUR/USD. The reason is there were better and easier setups somewhere else. This said, I may be warming up to a very quick long if my desired trade conditions are met.

This trade is against the grain, so exert caution and small size.

I would like to enter on a reaction to a possible weak Italian and Belgian bond/bill auctions overnight, especially if we get a "stop scoop" to gap fill or below last week's low. There is an open gap @ 1.3240 and last week's low is 1.3213

Here is my play:

Entry   - 1.3240 & 1.3213 (blended 1.3227)
Target - 1.3500 & 1.3530 (blended 1.3515)
Stop    - 1.3140


Rwrd -  blended 0.0288
Risk   - blended 0.0087
R/R    -  3.3

Good luck!!

Update on Nov 29 @ 9:20 am est
Both auctions had a good demand. There was a reason - the rates were very high. Italian 3s and 10s are inverted - very bad. Since there was no trigger in London session, I am going to cancel the trade. Price came 57 pips within my 1st target. I do not like that it spiked above YH, and for my entry it would now have to be below YL, therefore daily candle would be somewhat bearish inverted hammer. I say somewhat, because inverted hammer at the bottom of the range is not as bad as at the top (shooting star), and shows that shorts are starting to cover. So I will continue to monitor the developments and will update you if something changes.

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