Thursday, November 10, 2011

TNX is on the rise

Is there something brewing in bond land? Today we got a second weak bond auction of the week. Is this a fear of Super Committee not coming up with enough cuts? Or is this simply the fact that risk appetite is getting better and is about to rise further? This could also be the fact that rates are very low and are unattractive to investors. We are to watch this development closely. If TNX goes up, it will take all risk with it. Not going to do any good for my long-awaited SPX pullback to 50 dsma.

Technically speaking, TNX is above its 50 dsma as I type. There are open gaps above which will provide some magnetic draw. They are @:


There have been no daily closes above 100 dsma since 4/15/2011. 100 dsma is currently @ 23.53 and is laminated with upper daily BB. Daily Stoch is oversold, and showing a little bias towards crossing into a buy (not there yet though). Will be a good signal, if happens.
Bernanke sounded somewhat dovish in his speech today, and overall Fed tone is pro-QE3 lately. This will be an interesting TNX rally, if it happens. Probably because it is so unexpected by many. Keep your eyes on it...

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