Friday, November 25, 2011

Trading thoughts for week of Nov 28

Next week will be the most important one before the end of the year.
Market closed just above crucial levels on many indexes and individual stocks that I follow.
S&P 500 will have to hold these support levels and rally strong to get above 50 dsma soon, in order to avoid a retest of 2011 lows.
And that is exactly what I am expecting the market to do. I expect a hold of 1120 - 1156 support zone on SPX, which will later progress into a year-end rally, with SPX target of 1320 - 1350.

Following are detailed charts, which I think will support my view. It is a make or break time for bulls! Yes, I am a short-term bull. (Stop chuckling). As I said before, long-term bears are allowed to be short-term bulls. To be honest, I turned neutral on SPX in the intermediate term. It is just too hard to be a bear at these levels, due to strong US corporate fundamentals, exuberant US consumers, and lack of US recession. I was a bear @ 1340, I am not a bear @ 1158. In a worst-case scenario, SPX will trade in a range all year in 2012, albeit somewhat higher from here (imho). But lets get through the end of 2011 first.

Without further ado, let's look at charts.

(click on images to enlarge)

GOOG is just above major confluence of supports

AAPL is @ 200 dsma

SPX is just above major Support Zone 1120 - 1156

SPX Weekly Support Zone


XLF 2011 Twin Pattern (of 2010) may try to form a Double Bottom
or Inverted Head and Shoulders

RLX is coming down to support
Thanksgiving Sales will tell us if it holds
This chart indirectly represents 70% of US GDP

SOX 2011 Twin Pattern (of 2010) is at broken trendline backtest
Break will send it testing the lows
I am expecting a bounce
Probably the most predictive chart of 2011

No comments:

Post a Comment