Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Is ORCL giving NDX heads up?

Tech is in a cloud today (pun totally intended). ORCL missed earnings and has cast doubt on robust tech spending. Big cap tech is getting pounded.

I decided to look at how ORCL compares to NDX. Obviously it is a huge component and will weigh on the index. You can see (from comparison chart below) how closely correlated the two are. ORCL is now completing its head and shoulders objective, with a little more to go (just like earlier in the year). NDX is not there at all yet. I would say that for NDX to follow ORCL down more, we would have to see more companies confirm what ORCL told us, which would let us know that this was not just a one-off event. If we get another high-profile warning or miss in the space, watch out below, October and August NDX lows would come into play fast.

click on chart to enlarge

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