Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Let's Update The Charts

click on charts to enlarge

Update on Dec 14 @ 1:45 pm
Out of gold at -80. That was a bad trade. Have to follow my plan. Close below 1600 triggers a sell.

Update on Dec 14 @ 1:50 pm
Closed all AMZN puts today. Came 5 points short of 1 remaining gap, but it is way oversold here. Nice trade. Need to look for cheap calls now.

Update on Dec 14 @ 2:00 pm
Copper (and all other commodities) is selling off hard. FCX lowered sales due to strike, and JOY warned on lower commodities demand. It is right at apex here, just closed the 3.28 gap. I still think copper is going to bounce higher.


  1. Good charting.Also smart calls on EUR breaking below the trendline and copper finding support at 320.Do you think EUR could actually run all the way down to 1,28sh testing the low for the year and reverse strongly thereafter and only then follow your scenario. The reason why i am considering this probability is because there s been similar price action at round numbers this year - 1,3 at the beginning of the year and several times at 1,4. What needs to happen in order for you to negate your bullish year end (into Jan.) scenario? thanks in advance and good luck trading

  2. Thank you for reading and your kind words. I am a trend trader and very seldom do contrarian trades. So this 1.30 EUR/USD trade is with very small size. As to 1.28 area, it can go there, but my thinking was that 1.30 has a strong option barrier and would offer good r/r ratio with just 80 pip stop and multiple hundreds of pips of profit. Also, as you can see from my chart, similarity with prior bottom of the wedge setup gave me another reason to trade at this level.

  3. Market viewer, First of all let me thank you for your brilliant analysis. Please keep up the good work.

    Just wanted to know if you are still in EUR/USD trade?

  4. Yes, as of 12:30 pm est still in EUR/USD long.