Friday, February 3, 2012

Post NFP Trading Ideas

It is amazing how many people got NFP numbers wrong. Huge upside surprise and lack of anything negative in the report is sending bond bulls for the exits. Along with them are gold and euro bulls fleeing their long positions which were built on QE3 expectation. I posted a chart yesterday, which depicted dollar's weakness against those three assets. Is this the time for reversal to occur and dollar to regain strength?

click on chart to enlarge

SPX short is history, some of it worked, some is stopped at b/e. I have to rethink my short-term stock market outlook, based on the fact that this is a second strong employment report in a row. Trend is important in economics...

One unintended consequence is going to be thrown at the market (as the dust settles) - has U.S. presidential election momentum shifted this morning? Mr. Obama will be on TV at every opportunity, asking if we are better off now than three years ago. He has every right to ask that question with unemployment numbers subsiding.

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