Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Is it time to short EUR/USD again?

I would like to make a case for EUR/USD short.
Here are my thoughts:

Calm before the storm?
LTRO put Eurozone debt crisis on the back burner. But in the last few weeks debt woes of Spain and Italy are back in the news. Their bond yields are going up again. These countries have behemoth outstanding debt, which makes them practically impossible to bail out, even if EFSF, ESM, and other alphabet soups run together. Bond investors are getting worried that Spain's budget deficit above previous target is setting a bad precedent for "new fiscal treaty". Contagion could spread to Italy, which itself has quite a few issues with labor unions. Portugal, not to be outdone, is being mentioned as the next possible restructuring candidate.

Weak Econodata
The economic picture in Eurozone has been getting worse, and not just in periphery. From unemployment, to PMIs, to retail sales - all data has been coming in very weak. It will be hard for economy to rebound due to austerity and tight credit.

Today's release of last FOMC meeting minutes is probably the single best reason for this trade. Market was not prepared to hear hawkish details. Well, let's rephrase that - less dovish... Obviously, Bernanke & Co. could throw us for a loop again, but the market will pay less attention to them and really focus on econodata. It has been coming in stronger in U.S.

Market has gotten less bearish on EUR/USD lately. COT chart below shows a gradual reduction in large spec shorts.

Price ran into resistance at the top of the channel and is currently inside the wedge. Somewhat of a head and shoulders has also formed. 1.3135 - 45 area is a very critical support. There is a horizontal and trendline running through that zone. If it fails, short-term bullish structure becomes suspect. Traders will target 1.2975 - 1.3025 area, and if that does not hold - price would be heading to January low.
Resistance comes in @ 1.3250 - 1.3280 area, followed by 1.33 and WP a few pips above.

click on chart to enlarge

I am not sure how this trade may play out, due to pretty newsy rest of the week. We have ADP, ECB, and NFP on Wed and Fri, with the latter being illiquid holiday trading session. I would like to short a bounce to the resistance, or a breakdown below the support.

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