Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Longs' Wish List

It is now obvious that maximum pain in stock market is up. Traders went short, flat, and reduced on last week's horrendous performance. There is nothing new to that. When charts tell you to reduce the risk you do it. But my notion has always been: do not do what everyone else does all at once. So I would rather be long and sell the rip to 1400 on SPX, as those who are out need to get back in on the fear of missing the rally. There are pretty smart folks out there talking the market down so they can get back in. I presume their entry levels were staggered around 200 dma on SPX. Well, we never got there...

Let's put together a small wish list for those who are climbing a wall of worry higher at the moment (yours truly included).

1. We do not want AAPL up $30 every day, but we want it back above 50 dma
2. We want a broad participation by all market sectors, like yesterday
3. We do not want closes on the lows, let alone consecutive ones like last week
4. We do not want late-day sell-offs, absence of one yesterday was impressive
5. We want JPM and CAT back above 200 dma to aid XLF, XLI, and DIA
6. We want FB to continue cratering and all that money back into other leading market names, and stealing the spotlight of media's attention, thus keeping economic headlines on the second page
7. We do not want to close below last week's lows on AUD, CAD, and EUR
8. We want gold to do nothing from here and confuse the hell out of "talking heads"
9. We want Merkel and Hollande to kiss at tomorrow's EU summit (just to make Sarkozy mad), which would trigger 2% DAX and CAC rally
10. We want Greece to dominate the headlines and keep Spain in the background
11. We want Richmond Fed to be lost in the shuffle and not show deterioration in Mfg growth, even though employment component was pretty good (surprisingly)
12. We want all the skeptics out on TV saying 1330 on SPX will be the top of this rally
13. We want weekly retail sales to improve after today's Redbook and ICSC-GS disappointing WoW reports
14. We want DAX back above 6,450 and Nikkei back above 9,000 and stay there
15. We want China stimulus talk to continue, thus giving CRB a lift
16. We do not want bad China and EZ PMIs on Thu

OK, the list turned out to be not so small... But I would settle for half of the above, and it would still send SPX to 1400 by Greek election on June 17, which I did not even mention.

No comments:

Post a Comment