Monday, August 20, 2012

Get Ready

While I would like to stay politically neutral on my blog, it is hard not to discuss the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. Market is trying to digest the latest Paul Ryan development and see what the whole picture may finally look like in November.

I have been following from a little different angle, which I would like to share. Today there is a third huge deal in the health-care insurance space this year. Aetna is buying Coventry for $7.3 billion. (the link to Bloomberg article about the deal is below, and the prior two are mentioned as well) These guys know everything, they are tuned in. If Romney had any chance of winning, they would hold off and wait for a repeal of Obamacare.

On Intrade it looks like Mr. Obama is regaining his chances among the traders. I will stay away from predicting the winner of this very important race, but the chart below and the consolidation in the health-care insurance industry are telling me something rather obvious - the current President will stay for four more years.

click on chart to enlarge

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