Wednesday, December 12, 2012

From Greenspeak to Helicopter Ben (corrected)

Federal Reserve has come a long way from Greenspeak to Helicopter Ben. I am not sure what is better - an incoherent mumbling of Greenspan or Bernanke's transparent and detailed press conferences. In order to comprehend the outcome of FOMC's verbal communication with the market, one has to look at what happens when the Chairman speaks at the presser. Click on chart below to see the breakdown for this year, and what I think about today's market reaction.

(due to poor quality) read my note on graphic here instead:

Market's reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman's pressers has been mixed this year. Two times the market sold off for 3 days, only to bounce and rally strong. April press conference was followed by a brief bounce, and then a steep sell-off ensued. And September QEInfinity announcement has marked the top (so far). Only time will show what today's "Evans Rule" policy will do to the market. As a trader, I would not get involved in lengthy discussion leading to further confusion, and would simply follow the path of inverted head and shoulders on SPX chart. So, a brief pullback is to be succeeded  by continued rally into the end of the year. 

click on chart to enlarge

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