Is ES about to lose its best friend?

Those of you who follow market correlations closely, know that ES has done the heavy lifting this month without many of its usual friends like AUD, CAD, and NASDAQ. But DAX has continued to dance along and has been instrumental in this latest leg of the rally. After all, Europe is now fixed. Right? Right?

If DAX chart breaks down, I have a possible target below. Will ES follow?

click on charts to enlarge