Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Quick Celebration

Bears are jubilant today. S&P 500 finally had a decent down day. Now everyone is talking about the violent intra-day reversal, and a possible meaning of it.
Traders, it does not mean diddly squat yet. On my monthly SPX chart below you can see that it took the price many months to reverse the trend, marked by the moves below the rising 20-month and 50-month SMAs, before we knew that previous two bulls were dead. Celebrate for a few days to a week, but realize that prior broken highs at 1552 and 1576 will now serve as supports, and then hop on the freight train to above 1700 into the end of summer, when a bigger correction may occur. This is probably a short-term top, and not the end of this bull run.

click on chart to enlarge


  1. I fully concur with that.

    Topping is a process. I'd be surprised if - whenever we do max out on this multi-year cycle, that it doesn't take at least six months of chop, before the bears really come out to play.
    sp'1700s ? I'm looking for Trans 7000s, which would equate to sp'1800s by Aug/September.

    Will make for a good shorting level later this year.

  2. Agree with you on Transports above 7K by Aug. I wrote a post in April discussing a similar scenario, with a target of 7368