Thursday, September 15, 2011

Roadmap for SPX from Sep 15 to Dec 31

I am going out on a limb to lay out SPX roadmap for the rest of the year. I have done this correctly when we were at 1345 on July 22, and it is time to do this again. I am not afraid to be right :)

Here is what I think will happen:

1. We are at crossroads here, in no man's land. We will leave this range 1190 - 1208 to the upside to suck in late longs, who will be thinking we are going much higher.
2. 1220 - 1230 lid will hold sending us down hard, and I mean really hard and fast. It will be a total exodus by those who thought we are above 1200 for good, as we will go below 1200. All of this will happen out of nowhere and be a total surprise, as VIX will be declining by then.
3. We will find ourselves at 1135 - 1150 area in no time. Brief reprieve there and small bounce will then be followed by another hard leg down to slice through 1120 area and retest 1100.
4. Everyone and their brother will be buying there at 1100, thus sending us higher back to 1120 - 1135 area for backtest. It will serve as a lid and send us back down to 1100 retest which will be breached this time. VIX will be above 40 by then, again. Are you dizzy yet? 
5. What happens below 1100 is the most interesting thing. Just as everyone will think we are going much lower this time, we will bounce hard, perhaps even intraday. That bottom will probably be between 10 and 20 points below 1100 at around 1080 - 1090, and will be the bottom for the year.
6. We will go up for the rest of the year after that, on a steady climb. SPX will end up at 1250 - 1300 on Dec 31, by then totally confusing the heck out of entire investment community.
7. After the year end, in January we will start another leg down of this major bear market. That leg will take us down way below 1100. But let's get through the end of the year first.

If many of you think I have totally lost my mind, please read my July 22 prediction when we were at 1345.

Save this post for your references. Send your checks to me when this becomes true :)

UPDATE Sep 21 @ 4:30 pm edt
It is obvious that this trade is now fully on. We are below 1200 and will be threatening 1150 tomorrow. VIX is spiking. If there will be a retrace in afterhours, it will be sold hard in Europe, as the move down was fast, and I am sure many have not gotten it. Sell the rallies mode is definitely the idea here.  

UPDATE #2 Sep 22 @ 9:35 am edt
SPX opened below 1135 - 1150 range. After initial weakness, I expect a bounce into that range. VIX is above 40. Scale out and trail your stops. There is a gap to fill @ 1166. Not sure we can fill it today, too weak at the moment. Stay tuned...
Very important: I just heard CNBC mention sub-1000 levels being watched. This is the kind of stuff shorts are waiting for to completely cover, just when everyone says it is going lower. We are not there yet though...

Update #3 Sep 22 @ 8:50 pm edt
1120 was violated on intraday basis, but SPX managed to close above it. News is getting wilder by the minute, exaggerating the moves both ways. Throw possible US govt shutdown and China currency manipulation bill into the mix now.  This said IMF/G20 meetings are going on, and intervention rumor is making the rounds as I type, just to balance the shorts with longs. Weekend risk-off may do the trick on both sides.

Update #4 Sep 23 @ 2:35 pm edt
SPX futures kissed 1102 pre-market. Cash is staying above 1120 for entire session so far, running into 1140 sellers. There is still that 1166 unfilled gap looming above. One thing is for sure - they are not going to make it easy for anyone to hold positions over the weekend. Intraday volatility is insane. All of this is due to crazy rumors: ECB rate cut, Greek default via bond haircut, French TARP, G20/IMF interventions, etc. I remain skeptical of anything being pushed out by those who's entire trading is based on premise of hope or deception. Whether you are short or long, just tune out this nonsense, beware of resistance and support levels, tighten up your stops, and most importantly - scale out. Next week will be decisive. Somehow I think we will see 10 as the first two digits of SPX quote, even if only intraday...

UPDATE #5 Sep 26 @ 4:10 pm edt
SPX has closed 1166 gap. This completes "unfinished business". I expect the market to digest EFSF leverage news overnight, and start the descent to 1100 retest. There will be no peace in the market unless 1100 gets tested, imho.

UPDATE #6 Sep 27 @ 9:50 am edt
SPX is ripping higher. At this rate we are going to be back to 1190 resistance in no time. This is no joke, at this point I am flat and taking no chances. We may have had a successful retest of lows if 1150 holds on pullback. Let the market speak. Observing...

UPDATE #7 Sep 27 @ 6:20 pm edt
Market has sold off hard into the close. It was still a respectable gain. We have an unfilled gap @ 1163. I expect a close of that gap and weakness just below that to test the resolve of bulls. Bears folded really quick on this run higher, me included - let's see what bulls do when it's their turn to fight. I will reshort on the move below 1150, if it does not hold on closing basis.

UPDATE #8 Sep 28 @ 9:20 pm edt
SPX sold off hard today but held 1150 @ close. I am biased long here, as long as SPX does not close below 1150. Market is bringing all kinds of boogie men out of the closet. We are now worried about China's hard landing. I was worried about it a year ago, so what? Not going to happen. Slowdown - yes, but no hard landing in China, imho.

Update #9 Sep 29 @ 11:45 pm edt
My long bias is gone. So is my long position. I have a problem with NDX getting demolished today. I can not take a chance of being late to recognize forthcoming carnage. It may continue into next week.

Update #10 Oct 3 @ 8:30 pm edt
SPX closed @ new 2011 low, marginally below 1100. I am looking for a final push down to develop in the next 24 hrs. Looking for volume expansion on that climactic move. Reversal will come out of nowhere...

Update #11 Oct 4 @ 4:15 pm edt
All bear targets met. SPX has bottomed today @ 1074. We may not see that price for the rest of 2011.
Ascent to 1250 - 1300 begins now?


  1. Are you making a living out of this predictions ?

  2. I am a full-time trader. Thank you for reading!

  3. great info!! and very clear....

  4. Quality commentary - your outlook for the rest of the year is similar to what I think is likely. Are you using 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 as roadmaps? Anything else?

  5. Thank you. I am using 2007 - 2009 scenario. Charts are very similar. So many traders are saying that October 2011 is nothing like October 2008. Little do they know that we are just beginning 2008. Investing community is totally unprepared for what is yet to come. But as we both know, nothing travels in the straight line, so we are in for a few months of retracement.

  6. Correction: investing community is totally unprepared for what MAY be yet to come. Nobody knows what IS to come, but you have correctly identified the potential for a 2008-2009-like scenario, which would be compounded by the current lack of preparation for such a scenario on the part of the investing community. We used 2000-2003 to guide our outlook in 2007-2009, which could not have worked better -- to see the pattern hold for 3 consecutive cycles is unlikely. Look also at 1990-1991, 1987, 1966, and Summer/Fall 1946 for analogues. If you'd like I can send you these charts.