Thursday, September 15, 2011

You heard it here first

EUR/USD will wipe out all of these late shorts. I said just last night that it feels too one-sided. Let's see how high it takes us. No matter what you think you gotta cover. No more bank liquidity issues in Europe.

Technicals: retraces are aplenty in 10 big handle range. You pick the number. All of that does not matter now. It is going to be a blood bath for days. But after the dust settles: I would look at 1.4050 and 1.4140 as a "party-pooper" trade. After all, what has just changed? No solvency or structural issues solved. This said, liquidity issue is off the table. So as I said last night, any good news would be enough, vicious rallies to stop out shorts are sometimes the strongest you ever get.

I will admit letting my Euro short go at 1.40 was not the brightest decision I made, but catching the move to that from 1.4450 was not bad, I should say. I am getting some of that in this long. Take some off the table and trail the stops... We are in wave 2, going against the trend here, prepare for wave 3 down, long road ahead in this Euro saga still...

And now about SOX-led market rally. As I said last night, 380-390 resistance on SOX coincided with 1190-1200 SPX resistance is my moment for pause. A tiny runner is left on the table and I am a watcher of CNBC screaming "SOX has bottomed". Really? :)

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