Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Summer Trading Range?

My view is still incomplete, and more information is needed, but I am leaning towards this scenario: SPX may be settling into a summer trading range.

Trading ranges could be both torturous and rewarding. It is not advised to get involved in a big way in the middle of the chop, but trading the boundaries could be very lucrative.

So why the trading range for SPX? Very simple... On one hand we have Eurogeddon and slower world economic backdrop. Those factors are counterbalanced by Bernanke Put, safety of solid corporate fundamentals in U.S., anemic but existent U.S. economic growth, and refuge from economic and political instability abroad. And no, I am not talking about decoupling. SPX is still weighed down by ailing world markets and U.S. fiscal cliff, hence the cap on the upside.

Technically speaking, chart has support at flat on the year, and resistance now comes in at 1350-ish. Therefore you have roughly 100 points to chop inside of, possibly for the rest of the summer. If 100 points is not enough for you, then early summer vacation just got much more enticing... For those who are still going to trade this possible range, remember the following: beware of the traps at boundaries of the range, it is easy to get excited and carried away - keep your emotions in check.

I will try to further assess this scenario and will update my readers on this possible development.

No comments:

Post a Comment