Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Confusion Reigns Supreme

At mid-year mark I find myself at crossroads. No, I do not mean my own self, but rather my view of SPX and its immediate direction.

For starters, I am just a no non-sense trader. When I get a signal I take the trade, put a stop and target in, and leave the thing alone. But boy oh boy, I swear it has not been easy last couple of weeks. Just as I thought market should ramp up into 1375 - 1400, it dove, triggering my trailing stop on stinky Philly Fed. A hefty profit was made, nonetheless. Then I thought perhaps the trading range is in order. That quickly got demolished by the close above June 19th high, triggering my long entry. So now I am back at it, and to be frank, not loving the market at all. Reluctant long, I am looking to be a bear shortly. I can feel it around the corner, days, hours, minutes away. You are not going to hear a love story here - this market does not appeal to me. I am a very short-term renter of this long position, at best. My trailing stop is so tight, a mouse will not fit through. I just plain out do not trust any of this! My position is small, but will grow if 1380 - 1400 is taken out with a bang. I want the bears to bleed and scream foul in the process. I want a total bull domination and a complete backing of economic numbers, Q2 earnings, and other important fundamentals and technicals. Guess what? I do not expect any of that (probably the reason why SPX is climbing higher). All I think this latest rally is - a perceived end of Eurogeddon and a QE3 front running.

Yet I do not want to argue with the tape here. For whatever reason - the market is going up, and dragging me up with it. At least I have my charts to thank for being on the correct side. Meanwhile, reports like yesterday's ISM Mfg Index will give me a major heartburn. Reluctant long I will remain, until... to be updated.

Happy 4th of July to my American readers!

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