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Monday, July 2, 2012
Not a big surprise
Today's ISM release is not a big surprise due to poor regional mfg surveys released in June. Philly Fed, especially, gave us heads up on June 21st. Surprise or not - U.S. manufacturing recorded its first contraction in 3 years. If this becomes a trend, stock market will suffer. Prolonged manufacturing contraction leads to recession. This index is to be watched closely and with great trepidation.
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somehow every single economist interviewed by Bloomberg missed the call for ISM contraction. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-02/ism-index-of-u-s-manufacturing-decreased-to-49-7-in-june.html
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/has-the-u-s-economy-fallen-back-into-recession/
Ugly number this morning, does not bode well for the US economy across Q3/4.
ReplyDeleteConsidering Japan, UK, and the EU is already in recession, it bemuses me how so many still think the US is immune to it.
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Christian Liberty, economists are definitely having a tough time now. This was a no-brainer though, after Philly Fed. Its correlation with ISM Mfg Index is very high.
ReplyDeletePermabear Doomster, I totally agree. Decoupling was a myth, now clearly dispelled by the latest weak U.S. economic numbers.
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